Iterative Visual Thinking and the Self-Correction Mirage in VLM Grounding

arXiv:2606.13156v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Letting a vision-language model (VLM) think longer at test time has driven much recent progress. A natural way to bring this to spatial grounding is visual self-correction: the model predicts a bounding box, sees it rendered on the image, and refines it over several steps. We build a faithful instance of this idea, Iterative Visual Thinking (IVT), with a two-phase recipe: a supervised warm-up in which the base model's own predictions serve as realistic errors that a teacher VLM turns into corrective reasoning traces (yielding training data without human annotation), followed by GRPO with a simple IoU reward. Measured the way such systems are usually reported, it works: the trained model surpasses the single-shot base by +2.4pp Acc@0.5. We show this gain is a measurement mirage. The reported number silently keeps, per sample, the trajectory step closest to the ground-truth box: an oracle that needs the very answer it predicts. Re-scored under deployable, label-free stopping rules the improvement vanishes, and the best policy is not to iterate at all: stopping at step 0 matches the base and beats every shippable rule. The cause is a verification failure, since the model can generate a better box somewhere in its trajectory but cannot identify it. Self-verification confidence correlates only weakly with correctness (r about 0.22), and a counterfactual overlay shows the loop reacts to the presence of a rendered box rather than its correctness. We distill the lesson into an honest-trajectory evaluation protocol: accuracy under fixed label-free policies plus an explicit oracle-shippable gap.