Precise sample covariance spectral norm error -- an RDT view

arXiv:2607.14460v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the sample covariance error of centered Gaussians. A remarkable breakthrough [66] established the correct error scaling order and explicitly revealed the critical role of both the effective rank and the true covariance spectrum. In this work, we move beyond scaling characterizations and determine the precise limiting value of the error's spectral norm. To do so, we develop a generic framework based on Random Duality Theory (RDT). Within this framework, we first determine closed-form, explicit RDT-based upper bounds. We then establish complementary lower bounds by introducing a novel bilinear-quadratic RDT lower-bounding mechanism. By combining this mechanism with a two-replica systems bounding strategy, we show that our lower and upper bounds match in large-dimensional contexts. Our theoretical results are supplemented with numerical evaluations and simulations, demonstrating an excellent agreement already for problem sizes on the order of thousands.