Volumetric Directional Diffusion: Anchoring Uncertainty Quantification in Anatomical Consensus for Ambiguous Medical Image Segmentation

arXiv:2603.04024v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Ambiguous 3D medical image segmentation often involves boundaries where different expert delineations are non-identical yet clinically plausible. Modeling such inter-observer variability requires a careful balance between diversity and anatomical fidelity: deterministic models preserve coherent volumetric structures but collapse expert disagreement into a single mask, while stochastic generative models can produce diverse samples but may introduce disconnected components or slice-to-slice inconsistency when generating full 3D masks from unstructured noise. We propose Volumetric Directional Diffusion (VDD), a prior-anchored diffusion framework that shifts stochastic generation from full-mask synthesis to residual boundary exploration. VDD uses a coarse consensus prediction as an anatomical anchor and learns a directional diffusion process to generate plausible boundary variations around ambiguous regions while preserving stable volumetric topology. Experiments on three multi-rater datasets, including LIDC-IDRI, KiTS21, and ISBI 2015, show that VDD improves uncertainty distribution alignment while maintaining competitive segmentation accuracy and 3D structural consistency. These results suggest that prior-anchored residual diffusion can model clinically plausible expert disagreement without sacrificing anatomical fidelity.